ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    多尺度地质灾害风险动态评价与防控研究

    Research on Dynamic prevention and control of multi-scale geo-hazard risk

    • 摘要: 在极端气候事件与国土空间开发利用加剧的背景下,我国地质灾害防治面临严峻挑战。本文回顾了我国地质灾害风险防控发展历程,分析了现阶段存在的主要问题,并从4个方面总结了主要研究进展。(1)我国地质灾害调查历经了“1∶10万宏观摸底—1∶5万重点详查—1∶5万风险调查—1∶1万精细调查”等四个阶段,不同程度开展了县(市)、省和全国等不同尺度的地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险评价。在动态调查评价基础上,构建了“区域预警为先导、人防技防单体监测预警相结合”的地质灾害监测预警体系,支撑我国地质灾害防治工作走向“隐患点+风险区”双控管理体系。(2)当前存在的主要问题有:地质灾害与国土空间交互作用机制不清、多级地质灾害易发性评价缺乏一致性、风险动态评价缺乏定量通用技术和地质灾害气象风险预警缺乏高效的响应联动技术等。(3)在地质灾害与国土空间开发利用互馈机理研究基础上,开展了地质灾害易发性多级自适应评价、随机斜坡地质灾害危险性预测与风险评价、多尺度地质灾害气象风险预警、山区城镇地质灾害防御韧性评估,以及社区地质灾害风险防控响应联动等方面技术研究并取得阶段进展,为实现国家-省-市-县-乡-村-组多级关联的地质灾害动态风险防控提供了技术支撑。未来将依托典型示范区开展模型方法与系统装备的实地验证与应用,为我国地质灾害动态评价与风险防控体系的完善提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of extreme climate events and intensified land and spatial development, geo-hazard prevention and mitigation in China face significant challenges. This paper reviews the development of geo-hazard risk prevention and control in China, analyzes the major challenges currently faced, and summarizes research progress in four key areas. (1) Geo-hazard surveys in China have gone through four stages: 1∶100,000-scale reconnaissance—1∶50,000-scale detailed survey—1∶50,000-scale risk survey—1∶10,000-scale refined survey. These stages have carried out varying degrees of susceptibility, hazard, and risk assessments at the county (city), provincial, and national levels. Based on dynamic surveys and assessments, a geo-hazard monitoring and early warning system has been developed, characterized by regional early warning as the lead, and a combined human and technical monitoring system at individual hazard sites, which supports the transition of geo-hazard management in China to a dual-control system of hazard sites and risk zones. (2) The major challenges at present include: unclear mechanisms of interaction between geo-hazards and land use, inconsistency in multi-level geo-hazard susceptibility assessment, absence of quantitative, widely applicable techniques for dynamic risk assessment, and inefficient coordination in geo-hazard meteorological risk early warning systems. (3) In response to these challenges, coordinated research efforts have been made to study the feedback mechanisms between geo-hazards and land use, resulting in progress in multi-level adaptive geo-hazard susceptibility assessment, stochastic slope geo-hazard hazard prediction and risk assessment, multi-scale geo-hazard risk early warning based on meteorological factors, resilience assessment of geo-hazard defense in mountainous towns, and community-based geo-hazard risk prevention and coordinated response. These advancements support the development of a national–provincial–municipal–county–township–village–group multi-level linked dynamic geo-hazard risk prevention system. Future work will focus on field validation and application of modeling methodologies and system equipment in typical demonstration areas, providing technical support for the improvement of China’s dynamic geo-hazard assessment and risk prevention system.

       

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