ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    地质灾害风险区动态调整方法研究

    Dynamic adjustment methods for geological hazard risk zones

    • 摘要: 我国地质灾害风险防控已从“隐患点”管理向“隐患点-风险区双控”管理的战略转型。在新的地质灾害风险管理模式下,风险区预警冗余、管理压力大等问题将陆续出现,建立地质灾害风险区动态调整方法是解决问题的关键途径。在系统阐述风险区的基本概念和动态属性特征的基础上,梳理风险区动态管控的科学逻辑,探索构建动态调整指标体系;考虑历史预警数据储备是否充足的条件,分别提出风险区定性判识矩阵和引入“预警效率”的定量调整模型。以我国地质灾害隐患点-风险区双控试点——浙江省杭州市临安区为例,在对10万余条小时级历史气象预警信息与管控数据进行复盘分析和野外核查的基础上,对235个风险区进行动态调整实践和预警反演。结果表明,提出的方法能实现风险区的升级、保级、降级、核销或新增的判定;案例区内仅占比4%的极高风险区贡献了高达60%的预警次数,年均预警次数高达123次,预警冗余问题突出;采用本方法调整后,案例区内极高风险区数量减少了61%,预警次数减少了约60%,调整后的预警结果与实际灾害发生情况吻合。论文提出的风险区动态调整方法能科学地响应地质灾害风险的动态属性,显著提升地质灾害风险区气象预警与风险管控的精准性和管控效率,为我国全面推进地质灾害隐患点-风险区双控工作提供了可复制、可推广的解决方案和实践范例。

       

      Abstract: To support China’s strategic transition in geological hazard management from Static Potential Hazard Management to Dual Control of Potential Hazards and Risks of Geological Hazards, and to address issues such as redundant early warnings and heavy management pressure on risk zones under the current static management model, it is urgently necessary to establish a theoretical method for dynamic adjustment of geological disaster risk zones. Based on a systematic clarification of the fundamental concepts and dynamic attribute characteristics of risk zones, this study elucidated the scientific logic of dynamic risk zone management and explored the construction of a dynamic adjustment index system (comprising three primary indicators: changes in hazard sources, changes in elements-at-risk, and historical prevention effectiveness, and encompassing six second-level indicators: engineering mitigation, current deformation status, significant geological environmental changes, static and dynamic elements-at-risk, and early warning efficiency). For regions with insufficient historical warning data, a method for constructing a qualitative identification matrix for risk zones was proposed. For regions with adequate warning data, a quantitative adjustment model was innovatively established by introducing the quantified indicator of warning efficiency. Taking Lin’an District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province—a pilot area for the Dual Control of Potential Hazards and Risks of Geological Hazards in China—as a case study, this study conducted dynamic adjustment practice and warning effect inversion for 235 risk zones based on retrospective analysis and field verification of over 100,000 historical meteorological warning and management data records. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve scientific determination of upgrading, maintaining, downgrading, cancellation, and addition of risk zones. In the study area, extremely high-risk zones, accounting for only 4% of the total, contributed to as high as 60% of all warnings, with an average of as many as 123 warnings per zone annually, highlighting a prominent warning redundancy problem. After adjustment using this method, the number of extremely high-risk zones in the area decreased by 61%, and the number of hourly early warnings decreased by about 60%. Moreover, the adjusted warning results align with actual hazard occurrences. The dynamic adjustment method for risk zones proposed in this study can scientifically respond to the dynamic attributes of geological hazard risks, significantly enhance the precision and efficiency of meteorological early warning and risk management for geological hazard risk zones, and provide a replicable solution and practical model for China’s comprehensive promotion of the Dual Control of Potential Hazards and Risks of Geological Hazards.

       

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