ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    堆积层滑坡体中地下水对降雨入渗响应的预测模型研究

    Prediction model for groundwater response to rainfall infiltration in colluvium landslides

    • 摘要: 降雨入渗作用下,堆积层地下水的波动响应对评估斜坡稳定性至关重要,开展降雨入渗作用下的地下水响应预测模型研究,有助于深化对降雨诱发基岩山区堆积层滑坡形成机理的认识。文章基于2019—2023年在四川省青川县获取的降雨和地下水位监测数据,系统分析了降雨入渗过程中斜坡地下水位的响应规律,基于支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)模型预测斜坡的饱和深度比,针对传统SVR模型在预测入渗响应时存在的系统性滞后与峰值低估问题,引入了滞后特征、差分特征、滚动统计特征、周期性特征优化及极值特征优化,构建了一个多维度特征优化的SVR模型。结果表明:优化后的 SVR 模型预测精度显著提升,测试集决定系数(R2)从0.681提高至0.880,均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别降至0.0405和0.0270。提出的优化模型能够更准确地捕捉极端降雨事件下斜坡堆积层地下水的非线性响应过程,是一种行之有效的预测方法。

       

      Abstract: Groundwater fluctuations in colluvial deposits induced by rainfall infiltration play a critical role in slope stability. Developing reliable models for groundwater response to rainfall infiltration enhances understanding of the mechanisms underlying rainfall-induced shallow landslides in bedrock mountain areas. This study utilized rainfall and groundwater monitoring data collected in Qingchuan County, Sichuan Province, from 2019 to 2023 to systematically analyze the response patterns of slope groundwater levels during rainfall infiltration. A support vector regression (SVR) model was developed to predict the saturation depth ratio of slopes. To address the systematic lag and peak underestimation inherent in conventional SVR models during infiltration response prediction, this study introduced lag features, differencing features, rolling statistical features, periodic feature optimization, and extreme value feature optimization, constructing a multi-dimensional feature-optimized SVR model. Results demonstrate that the optimized SVR model achieves substantially improved predictive accuracy, with the coefficient of determination (R2) on the test set increasing from 0.681 to 0.880, while root mean square error and mean absolute error decrease to 0.0405 and 0.0270, respectively. The proposed optimization model more effectively captures the nonlinear groundwater response processes in colluvial slopes during extreme rainfall events, demonstrating its potential as a practical tool for rainfall-induced landslide assessment and early warning.

       

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