ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    地质灾害气象预警研究进展与发展趋势

    Advances and trends in geo-hazard early warning based on meteorological factors

    • 摘要: 突发性地质灾害在我国乃至全球范围内都是多发频发、危害严重的自然灾害之一,地质灾害气象预警是实现地质灾害防御“端口前移”和有效防灾减灾的重要途径。近年来,极端降雨引发群发地质灾害频率大幅增加,面向精准预警的更高需求,提升预警模型精度和预警系统效率成为迫切需要解决的问题。本文系统回顾了国内外预警模型研究成果和预警系统运行进展,归纳总结了存在的主要问题,并对未来发展趋势进行展望。(1)地质灾害气象预警模型分为统计分析模型、机理分析模型和机器学习模型3大类。统计分析模型以其简单便利的优势应用最广,模型精度主要受限于统计样本数量和质量;机理分析模型能较好揭示灾害发生机理,但因失稳机理的复杂性和模型参数的不确定性,使其在区域尺度的应用局限性凸显;机器学习模型发展迅速,在大数据挖掘和提升模型精度方面应用潜力大,但现阶段样本稀缺、特征复杂等瓶颈问题,实际应用仍面临挑战。(2)系统总结了全球28个主要国家或地区的预警业务和模型应用情况,82%采用统计模型,18%应用机理模型,机器学习模型成为近年研究热点,部分已进入测试运行,应用前景广阔。未来应更多聚焦多源地质气象大数据融合与AI技术应用,提高预警精准度,增强预警响应能力,助力实现更精准高效的地质灾害防灾减灾。

       

      Abstract: Geo-hazards triggered by extreme weather events occur frequently in China and worldwide, posing severe risks to lives and property. Meteorological early warning for geo-hazards is a critical means of advancing disaster prevention “ahead of the event” and improving the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. In recent years, the increasing frequency of intense rainfall–induced geo-hazard clusters has highlighted the urgent need to enhance both model accuracy and system efficiency for precise early warning. This study provides a systematic review of progress in geo-hazard early warning models and operational systems, identifies their key challenges, and outlines future development directions. Geo-hazard meteorological early warning models fall into three major categories: statistical models, physical models, and machine learning models. Statistical models are widely used due to their simplicity and ease of implementation, but their accuracy is constrained by the quantity and quality of historical samples. Physical models can reveal failure mechanisms but face limitations in regional applications due to complex instability processes and parameter uncertainties. Machine learning models are rapidly advancing and offer strong potential for extracting multi-source data patterns and improving prediction performance; however, challenges remain in terms of limited samples and complex feature representation in real-world conditions. A global review of early warning practices in 28 major countries or regions shows that 82% of operational systems use statistical models, while 18% employ physical models. Research on machine learning models has surged in recent years, with some systems entering pilot testing and demonstrating promising prospects for broader application. Future efforts should focus on integrating multi-source geological–meteorological big data with advanced AI techniques to improve warning accuracy, strengthen response capability, and promote more precise and effective geo-hazard disaster prevention and mitigation.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回