ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    时空图卷积神经网络模型在上海地面沉降预测中的应用

    Land subsidence prediction in shanghai via spatiotemporal graph convolutional networks

    • 摘要: 针对现阶段用于地面沉降预测的数值模型以及深度学习模型的局限性,通过融合图卷积网络和门控时序卷积网络的时空图卷积神经网络(spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network,STGCN)模型,同时整合地面沉降的空间特征和时序特征,对研究区域内不同节点的地面沉降进行同步预测,采用上海2008年1月—2023年3月的地面沉降数据对模型进行训练和验证。结果表明:时空图卷积神经网络模型的平均绝对误差、均方根误差、标准化均方根误差分别为0.93 mm、1.05 mm、0.49,相比于只考虑空间依赖的图卷积网络、图注意力网络和只考虑时间依赖的门阀循环网络、长短期记忆网络具有明显优越性,在微量沉降、回弹和沉降量较大的节点预测精度均高于对照模型。基于STGCN模型的预测研究表明,在当前地下水开采与回灌格局下,2023—2028年上海市各个节点的沉降速率范围为−0.08~5.59 mm/a(负值表示回弹),所有节点的沉降速率的平均值为2.92 mm/a。通过融合时空特征的深度学习算法架构,本文提出的时空图卷积网络模型可用于城市地面沉降的精准预测和科学防控。

       

      Abstract: To address the limitations of current numerical models and deep learning approaches in land subsidence prediction, this study proposes a spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network (STGCN) combining graph convolutional networks (GCN) and gated temporal convolutional networks to integrate both spatial and temporal features of land subsidence. The model enables simultaneous prediction of subsidence at multiple monitoring nodes across a study area. Using land subsidence data from Shanghai spanning January 2008 to March 2023 for training and validation, the results demonstrate that the STGCN model achieves a mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.93 mm, 1.05 mm, and 0.49, respectively. These metrics significantly outperform control models that consider only spatial dependencies (GCN and graph attention network, GAT) or temporal dependencies (gated recurrent unit, GRU; long short-term memory, LSTM). The STGCN model presents higher prediction accuracy for nodes with minor subsidence, rebound, or significant settlement. The prediction study based on the STGCN model shows that under the current pattern of groundwater extraction and recharge, the subsidence rates at various nodes in Shanghai from 2023 to 2028 will range from −0.08 to 5.59 mm/a (negative values indicate rebound), with an average subsidence rate of 2.92 mm/a across all nodes. By fusing spatio-temporal features within a deep learning architecture, the proposed STGCN provides a robust scientific framework for precise urban land subsidence forecasting.

       

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