ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    耦合数据驱动与物理机制的多环芳烃运移模拟

    Coupled data-driven and physical mechanism modeling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon transport

    • 摘要: 多环芳烃(Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons,下同PAHs)是地下水中的主要有机污染物之一,地下水中多环芳烃运移数值模拟是开展地下水污染高效修复的重要工具。在实际地下水污染条件下,由于难以准确刻画含水介质中的胶体类型及其分布,通常忽略污染物-胶体共运移机制,建立的模型存在结构误差,导致模型预测具有显著偏差。本研究以荧蒽和菲为研究对象,针对忽略的PAHs-胶体的共运移机制,使用高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)修正模型结构误差,建立耦合数据驱动和物理机制的多环芳烃运移模型。通过饱和砂柱PAHs运移室内实验,对比分析了未耦合和耦合数据驱动方法的模型预测结果。结果表明,忽略PAHs-胶体的共运移机制的地下水多环芳烃运移模型具有显著的模型结构误差,直接进行参数识别不能弥补忽略的共运移机制,预测结果存在显著偏差。使用GPR模型可以有效补偿PAHs-胶体的共运移机制,修正地下水模型的结构误差。验证期荧蒽、菲预测结果的95%置信区间对观测数据的覆盖率分别提升了56.84%和19.04%,纳什系数分别提升了40.09%和21.73%,均方根误差分别降低了33.10%和55.38%,平均绝对误差分别降低了32.00%和46.34%,地下水多环芳烃运移模型的预测性能显著提高。本研究提出的耦合数据驱动和物理机制方法为场地地下水多环芳烃运移精准模拟提供了可行思路,有助于实现地下水污染的精准高效修复。

       

      Abstract: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the primary organic contaminants in groundwater, and numerical modeling of PAH transport is a crucial tool for efficient groundwater pollution remediation. Under actual groundwater contamination conditions, the co-transport mechanism of contaminants and colloids is often neglected due to the difficulty in accurately characterizing the types and distribution of colloids within the aquifer matrix. This omission introduces structural errors into the model, resulting in significant biases in predictive outcomes. This study focuses on fluoranthene and phenanthrene, addressing the neglected co-transport mechanisms of PAHs and colloids by employing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to correct structural model errors. A PAH transport model coupling data-driven and physical mechanisms was developed. Through saturated sand column experiments on PAH transport, the predictive performance of models using uncoupled and coupled data-driven approaches was compared and analyzed. The results indicate that groundwater PAH transport models neglecting the co-transport mechanisms of PAHs and colloids exhibit significant structural errors. Direct parameter calibration fails to compensate for the omitted co-transport mechanisms, leading to substantial prediction biases. The application of the GPR model effectively compensates for the PAH-colloid co-transport mechanisms and corrects structural errors in the groundwater model. During the validation period, the 95% confidence interval coverage of observed concentrations improved by 56.84% for fluoranthene and 19.04% for phenanthrene. NSE increased by 40.09% and 21.73%, while RMSE dropped by 33.10% and 55.38%, MAE by 32.00% and 46.34%, respectively. The predictive performance of the groundwater PAHs transport model improved significantly. The coupled data-driven and physics-based approach proposed in this study provides a viable framework for accurate simulation of PAHs transport in site groundwater, contributing to precise and efficient groundwater contamination remediation.

       

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