ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    白鹤滩水库滑坡变形及对库水变化的敏感性分析

    Analysis of landslide deformation and sensitivity to reservoir water changes in Baihetan Reservoir

    • 摘要: 白鹤滩水库蓄水运行导致大量滑坡变形,然而滑坡变形对库水位变化的敏感性缺乏系统研究。通过InSAR变形监测技术、光学遥感、野外调查统计和斯皮尔曼相关系数分析,结果显示:查明白鹤滩库区涉水变形滑坡47处,2019年1月—2023年12月的变形速率在−57.29 mm/y~58.52 mm/y;滑坡月均变形量与库水升降幅度的斯皮尔曼相关系数为中度相关,库水变化是滑坡变形的主要诱发因素,仅个别滑坡受降雨影响较大。滑坡变形对库水位变化的敏感性从大到小依次为:库水升降频率、库水下降幅度和库水上升幅度,其中对库水升降频率敏感的滑坡有26处,占涉水滑坡总数55.32%;对库水下降幅度敏感的滑坡有14处,占29.79%;对库水上升幅度敏感的滑坡有7处,占14.89%。研究成果可为大型水库滑坡灾害的预防提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The water storage operation of Baihetan Reservoir leads to a large number of landslide deformations, but there is a lack of systematic research on the sensitivity of landslide deformation to reservoir water level changes. Through InSAR deformation monitoring technology, optical remote sensing, field survey statistics and Spearman correlation coefficient analysis, the results show that: 47 wading deformation landslides were investigated. The surface deformation rates, observed from January 2019 to December 2023, range from −57.29 mm/year to 58.52 mm/year. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the monthly average displacement of landslides and the fluctuation amplitude of the reservoir water level indicates a moderate correlation. Reservoir water level fluctuations are the primary drivers of landslide deformation, while only a few landslides are significantly influenced by rainfall. The sensitivity of landslide deformation to reservoir water level changes, in descending order, is as follows: frequency of reservoir water level fluctuations, magnitude of reservoir water level decrease, and magnitude of reservoir water level increase. Specifically, 26 landslides are sensitive to the frequency of reservoir water level fluctuations, accounting for 55.32% of all Wading landslides; 14 landslides are sensitive to the magnitude of reservoir water level decrease, accounting for 29.79%; and 7 landslides are sensitive to the magnitude of reservoir water level increase, accounting for 14.89%. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the prevention of landslide disasters in large reservoirs.

       

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