ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P
    吴森,齐得旭,李虎,等. 基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2024,51(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202307005
    引用本文: 吴森,齐得旭,李虎,等. 基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2024,51(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202307005
    WU Sen, QI Dexu, LI Hu, et al. A multifactor coupled rarly-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards based on the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2024, 51(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202307005
    Citation: WU Sen, QI Dexu, LI Hu, et al. A multifactor coupled rarly-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards based on the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2024, 51(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202307005

    基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型

    A multifactor coupled rarly-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards based on the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster

    • 摘要: 长输油气管道不可避免要穿越地质环境条件复杂的山区,遭受各类地质灾害威胁,而滑坡灾害又是其中最为严重的一种。为了实现管道滑坡灾害的提前预判,通常设定多项监测预警指标进行监测,但是,由于忽略了各指标之间的关联性,导致大量的错报与误报。本文通过对管道滑坡灾害动态演化过程分析,提出了管道滑坡灾害动态演化的四个阶段:滑坡区降雨、地表入渗→地下水位上升,坡体自重增加、岩土力学参数降低→坡体产生局部变形→滑坡整体失稳下滑作用于管道。提取了灾害变形、外界诱发因素、管道应力应变三种类型监测关键指标,构建了管道滑坡灾害监测指标体系,在此基础之上,提出了一种基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型。该模型通过综合考虑灾害变形指标、外界诱发指标、管道力学指标之间的耦合关系,构建出了多维度预警等级判据。模型在贵州某天然气管道滑坡开展示范应用,先后成功发布蓝色、黄色、红色预警信息,为滑坡的应急处置与抢险提供了充足的响应时间,保障了管道的运营安全。该模型避免了因降雨过多即出发高预警等级的问题,进一步提高了预警准确度,使得预警结果更符合实际,可以为管道滑坡灾害的监测预警工作提供一定的参考与借鉴。

       

      Abstract: Long oil and gas pipelines inevitably cross mountainous regions with complex geological environment and are threatened by various geological disasters, the most severe of which is landslides. To achieve early-warning of pipeline landslide hazards, multiple monitoring and early-warning indicators are typically established. However, the failure to account for the correlation between various indicators has led to a high frequency of false alarms. Based on the analysis of the dynamic evolutionary process of pipeline landslide hazards, this study proposes four stages of pipeline landslide hazards: (1) rainfall on the landslide leads to surface infiltration; (2) the groundwater level rises increasing the slope self-weight increases and reducing the geotechnical parameter; (3) the slope has undergone local deformation; (4) the landslide slides entirely and threatens pipeline safety. Three key monitoring indicators of landslide hazard deformations, external induced indicators, and pipeline stress-strain were extracted to construct a monitoring index system for pipeline landslide hazards. On this basis, a multifactor coupled early-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards is proposed. This model integrates the relationships between landslide deformation indicators, external triggers, and pipeline mechanical responses, creating a multidimensional early-warning criterion. This early-warning model was applied in a natural gas pipeline landslide in Guizhou Province, and successfully issued blue, yellow, and red early-warning information, providing sufficient time for emergency response and rescue of the landslide, ensuring the safe operation of the pipeline. This model can avoid the problem of high early-warning levels due to excessive rainfall, further improving the accuracy of pipeline landslide hazards early-warning and making the early-warning results more realistic. This tudy can provide a valuable reference for the monitoring and early-warning work on pipeline landslide hazards.

       

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