[1]赵洁,等.未来气候变化对大连周水子地区海水入侵程度的影响预测[J].水文地质工程地质,2020,47(3):17-24.[doi:10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000 -3665.201909012]
 ZHAO Jie,LIN Jin,et al.Prediction of the impact of future climate change on the extent of seawater intrusion in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City in northern China[J].Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology,2020,47(3):17-24.[doi:10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000 -3665.201909012]
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未来气候变化对大连周水子地区海水入侵程度的影响预测()
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《水文地质工程地质》[ISSN:1000-3665/CN:11-2202/P]

卷:
47卷
期数:
2020年3期
页码:
17-24
栏目:
水 文 地 质
出版日期:
2020-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of the impact of future climate change on the extent of seawater intrusion in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City in northern China
文章编号:
1000 -3665(2020)03 -0017 -08
作者:
赵洁1 2林锦3吴剑锋2吴吉春2
1.华北水利水电大学水资源学院,河南 郑州450046;2.表生地球化学教育部重点实验室/南京大学地球科学与工程学院水科学系,江苏 南京210023;3 南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京210029
Author(s):
ZHAO Jie1 2 LIN Jin3 WU Jianfeng2 WU Jichun2
1.College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou,Henan450046, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education; Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing,Jiangsu210023, China;3.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, Jiangsu210029, China
关键词:
SEAWAT海水入侵未来气候变化降水频率CMIP5气候模式
Keywords:
SEAWAT seawater intrusion future climate change rainfall frequency climate modes derived from CMIP5
分类号:
P641.3
DOI:
10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000 -3665.201909012
摘要:
滨海含水层的海水入侵程度受地下水开采量、海平面变化和降水补给量等多个因素影响。随着气候持续变化,预测未来气候情境下降水量变化对海水入侵程度的影响,可为区域水资源合理配置提供依据。本研究基于校正好的三维变密度地下水数值模拟模型(采用SEAWAT建立),预测了大连周水子地区海水入侵程度对不同降水频率及CMIP5气候模式下的预测降水量的响应。结果表明:未来海水入侵程度与未来降水量呈近似负相关关系,即降水量越少,海水入侵程度越严重;如海水入侵程度在枯水年较丰水年、平水年更加严重;7种气候模式下,MPI气候模式(S7 -2 -Y)下的未来年平均降水量最小,未来海水入侵程度也最严重,CNRM气候模式(S5 -2 -Y)下未来年平均降水量最大,未来海水入侵程度最不严重;此外,还发现每种气候模式不同温室气体浓度排放情景下的降水量对未来海水入侵程度几乎无影响。总而言之,未来海水入侵程度会愈加严重。该预测模型的建立可为国内类似滨海地区的实际水资源配置工作提供参考依据。
Abstract:
The pumping groundwater, the changing sea level and the rainfall recharge affect the extent of seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifers. With continue change of the future climate, predicting the impact of future climate change on the extent of seawater intrusion can provide a basis for the rational allocation of regional water resources. The calibrated three -dimensional heterogeneous density -dependent numerical model which was constructed by using SEAWAT was applied to predict the impact of future rainfall scenarios including different rainfall frequency analysis and climate modes derived from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) on the extent of seawater intrusion in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City in northern China. The results show that the extent of seawater intrusion in the future is negatively correlated with the future rainfall,namely the less rainfall, the more severe extent of seawater intrusion.For example, the extent of seawater intrusion in dry years is more severe than that in normal years and wet years. Among the seven climate modes, the future average annual rainfall of MPI climate mode (S7 -2 -Y)is the minimum, so the extent of seawater intrusion in the future is also the most severe.In the CNRM climate mode (S5 -2 -Y), the future average annual rainfall is the maximum, so the extent of seawater intrusion in the future is the least severe.And, the extent of seawater intrusion is almost identical to each other for different greenhouse gas emission scenarios of every climate mode.Overall, the extent of seawater intrusion in the future would be even more severe.The establishment of the prediction model can guide the actual water resources allocation of similar coastal areas in China.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2019 -09 -10; 修订日期: 2019 -11 -25
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402807);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709106; 40902069);河南省高等学校重点科研项目计划支持(18A170011)
第一作者: 赵洁(1984 -),讲师,主要从事地下水模拟与优化研究。E -mail: zhaojiecug@126.com
通讯作者: 吴剑锋(1971 -),教授,主要从事地下水模拟优化管理方面的研究。E -mail: jfwu@nju.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-05-15